ROME, Italy / RankWire.AI / – World cereal production is forecast to retreat from its 2025 record this year, though it will remain at the second-highest level on record at 2,999 million tonnes, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on Friday, November 6. Output is expected to decline across all major cereals. The steepest drop is forecast for wheat, while coarse grains will see only a marginal decrease.
The forecasts appear in FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. Global cereal stocks are projected to rise by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8%, by the close of seasons in 2027. Higher wheat inventories in Russia and Ukraine account for much of the increase, as export disruptions cause supplies to accumulate. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 32.4%, slightly above the previous season. The brief updates FAO’s earlier forecasts for the season.
Trade in cereals contracts
World cereal trade is forecast to fall 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes in 2026/27. Wheat shipments are set to drop 8.6%, or 18.1 million tonnes, the main reason for the decline. Exports from all major wheat suppliers are expected to fall amid supply or logistical constraints. Maize trade is forecast to rise 2.2%, or 4.5 million tonnes, while rice trade is seen climbing 2.9% in 2027.
Rice production is forecast to shrink for the first time in four seasons, falling 2.5% to 552 million tonnes. Poor producer margins and El Niño-related weather problems are behind the decline, FAO said. Rice stocks are also expected to decrease to 216.5 million tonnes. That would still be the second-highest level on record for rice stocks. World cereal utilization is forecast to edge up 0.2% to 2,971 million tonnes, driven mostly by food consumption.
Food prices ease in October
Food use of wheat is seen rising 0.8%, and rice 1.0%, slightly below the rate of global population growth. Separately, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October, down 1.6 points, or 1.2%, from September. The index was 5.9% higher than a year earlier. It also remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak. FAO has also drawn attention to global food waste, which carries a heavy annual cost.
Cereal prices fell 4.5% in October. Wheat prices declined after four straight monthly increases, due to weak international demand, better harvest prospects in Argentina and expectations that Black Sea export constraints will ease. Maize prices also fell from a three-year high on U.S. harvest pressure and ample South American supplies. Easing tensions in the Black Sea region also weighed on maize. Rice prices rose 1.6% on harvest delays and higher costs.
Sugar prices surged 6.6% to their highest level since December 2024, marking a fourth straight monthly rise. Sugar prices were 28.8% higher than a year earlier. Rain disrupted cane harvesting in Brazil’s Centre-South region. Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, with soybean oil reaching its highest level since late 2022. Dairy and meat prices fell 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Price swings have been common, as in June 2025, when prices rose slightly.